Musings 132--Blotting out the sun...

If you were in the Middle East yesterday, you would have been treated to that soothsayer's delight of the blotting out of the sun. I suppose the one thing that was not needed, in an area of the world that suffers from religious fanatics, was more proof their god was still watching over them. Sometimes you can't win for losing. (See Link)

Science used to be the mainstay of the modern world. Those of us who believe that the world was not literally created in six 24-hour days used to sit and chuckle at the superstitious babblings of people who view anything they can't understand as the "hand of god." It is a convenient way to explain things that you don't understand. Science in the 20th century was an awaking. We flew through the air, split the atom and went to the moon. The days of the mystics were behind us...boy were we ever wrong.

In many states throughout the union, there are high schools that are scared to teach evolutionary science. Even though there are zillions of facts for the teaching of evolutionary science, it is a subject of deep religious belief that stops our children from being properly educated.

Since I have been out of the classroom for four years now, I wonder how yesterday's eclipse was taught in science class...or, in any class. God has his place. It is in the hearts and worship places of the world, but science should be taught unvarnished. The evidence says we've been here a long time. I doubt that God has a conflict with that. He can't, unless, he is a lair, and I thought that was the other guy that did that. You know...Satan!!

Musings 131--My dog with cartoons

This is my dog Bart. He is the most truthful son-of-a-bitch on this page.


This is the way many of us see the president and vice president. (See Link to Slate)

Musings 130--Lying dogs don't sleep

The old adage that one should "let sleeping dogs lie," just doesn't fill the bill for the Bushie lovers and enablers. "Lying dogs don't sleep," would be a better, more modern adage. Plus, dogs is a good way of referring to these administrative bootlickers.

The Bush jr. Administration has no better "lying dog" than Sean "Big Head" Hannity. He is constantly using half-truths and outright lies to aid the Bushies in their reshaping of America. Last night he was talking about how the unemployment rate is in the best shape it has ever been in. Well, that just isn't true. If you look to the left you will see a chart that plots the unemployment rate from Bush I, through Clinton and now Bush II. I stole this graph from the guys at Media Matters. David Brock, who runs that website is usually pretty reliable. (See Link)

If you notice, that under Clinton the last three years of unemployment ( 1998, 1999, 2000) were much better than current rates under Bush II. Granted they are going down now under Bush II, but I wonder how long this will last. Gas prices and healthcare costs could very well do away with the progress that has been made the last couple of years. It is also possible that new housing starts will flatten out this summer due to rising interest rates. If this happens, then, unemployment will rise. Construction workers are a large part of the employment market.

Dogs like Hannity and Rush, stay up nights inventing positive spin for this president. Recently, it has been the media's fault for the civil war in Iraq. Oh, wait...there is no civil war in Iraq. Those dead bodies that we find daily are just remnants of old feuds. Yep, it is called a civil war. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be an kangaroo, according to Hannity and his ilk.

Musings 129--Bush is the Straw Man

So the AP is taking it on the chin for pointing out that Bush jr. uses a technique called the " straw man" to create fake positions that he can knock down like...well, a straw man. (See Link)

Since the first time I heard him speak, Bush jr. has done the "straw man" thing. He is constantly using phrases like "some say" or "many feel." Usually, when he does this he is presenting a warped picture of what his political oponnets are saying. What he is doing is creating a monster that he can slay for his partisan hacks, who then take the message and spin it any way they wish. Bush jr. may be dumber than a box of hammers, but he understands the "straw man" technique.

I submit that Bush jr. is the original "straw man," himself. He is nothing like he wishes us to perceive him. He is a narrow-minded man with little compassion for the world around him. He ran as a compassionate conservative. He has proven to be neither. Bill Clinton was way more of a fiscal conservative than Bush jr.

Bush jr. says he is for smaller government. Well, government has gotten bigger under his watch. Bush jr. says that he is for individual freedoms. Under him, individual freedoms have been decreased. Bush jr. says that he is strong on national defense. Today, we are hate by more people in the world than at any time in recent history. Plus, we cannot address places like North Korea and Iran due to the spreading thin of American forces.

It has taken nearly six years, but the American people are starting to see what a "straw man" that George W. Bush is. I guess it is better late than never, but not by much.

Musings 128--Kim Jong's Preemptive Option

So everybody in the media is all a buz about Bush jr.'s press conference where he finally called on Helen Thomas, the current dean of journalism, for the first time in nearly four years. Well, I say that it wasn't an accident, and Helen was set up because Bush jr. knew the question that she would ask. If you read her column on a regular basis, she has stated many times the question she would most like to ask him. He just wanted to reiterate his position for going to war--and he did.

Now while everyone is talking about that, the real story of the day gets buried. It seems that North Korea has decided that the Bush Administration are not the only ones that have the option of preemptive war. (See Link)

Everyone pretty much agrees that Kim Jong II is a wacko, but he is a wacko with a nuclear bomb. He also has missiles. If you put a nuclear bomb on a missile you get a thing that can go boom in the United States.

The following is a quote form the North Korean's. It is a bit jumbled, but it makes the point.

"As we declared, our strong revolutionary might put in place all measures to counter possible U.S. pre-emptive strike," the spokesman said, according to the Korean Central News Agency. "Pre-emptive strike is not the monopoly of the United States."

So there you have it. Not only has Bush jr. made a mess out of Iraq, he has now given the North Koreans the idea of preemptive war. Kim Jong is a scary guy who is not to secure in his skin. If he perceives a threat from the United States, he could very well blow up Alaska. At that point it would be moot to worry about drilling for oil in Anwar.

It just keeps getting better and better with Bush jr. and his merry men. With two and a half years to go, who knows how deep he can dig the whole for another president to get out of. With yesterday's honest claim that it will be some other president that will get out troops out of Iraq, I was abruptly thrown back to Lyndon Johnson in 1968. He dug the Viet Nam hole so deep that it took President Nixon nearly six years to decide to pull out and come home. Bush jr. is doing the same. Of course, if Kim Jong II has a vision that we're coming to get him--it all becomes moot.

Musings 127--Hitting the Ceiling...

The Republican Party used to be the party of fiscal responsibility. I think "used to be" is the operative phrase.

Congress, now controlled by republicans, raised the ceiling on the national debt yesterday to $8.96 trillion. Why they just didn't go for $9 trillion, I guess, is a feeble public relations move. At least they can say it is under $9 trillion. These guys will spin that into good news, somehow.

When I was a wet-behind the ears republican in the seventies, folks like Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan used to make fun of the tax and spend democrats. Well, now the tax-cut for the rich and keep spending republicans are having their turn.

The republican controlled congress has raised the debt ceiling five times since 1997. These guys have done a hell of a job protecting our monies. In 1997 it was $5.95 trillion and there were predictions that since there was a surplus that the national debt might be paid off by 2008...and, pigs can fly.

We are now hitting our heads on the debt ceiling every year. It is estimated that next year it will have to be raised again. It kind of gives new meaning to saying "the skies the limit."

For the life of me, I cannot see why anyone would elect a republican for anything since they have lost the label of fiscal responsibility. The dems are now the ones saying that they can do better. Well, I'm not sure they could do much worse.

Have a Happy St. Patrick's Day...V for vendetta!!

Musings 126--The Evil Doctrine of Preemption...

Bush jr. keeps pounding the idea home that the world changed on 911. Every chance he gets, or his lackeys get, the Doctrine of Preemption is preached to the world. We have to get them before they get us. We know what is good so we are in the right.

As I have stated before, it was a sad day that right-thinking people went along with a preemptive strike in Iraq. As the facts have proven, Iraq did nothing to us, and, yes, I think the world was probably more stable with Saddam in power. At least, he knew how to keep the lid on the different factions.

Today Bush jr. is making it American policy to preempt. (See Link)

With the United States being the "leader" of the free world, we should ponder on what this means. Since it is our goal to have every other county emulate our behavior in all things, is it not too much to contemplate that the Doctrine of Preemption will be adopted by all other countries? It is evident that North Korea feels that way. They came out last week and said that they have the right to strike first if they feel threatened. They are just emulating us...think about it!

Iran will be the next to pattern themselves after us. If they had nukes, they'd be doing it already. Does anyone see a pattern here?

My heart was heavy when we started down this path. I remember talking to anyone that would listen about how the Doctrine of Preemption was evil--even at face value.

One thing I have learned in this life is that when I think I know what someone is going to to, they fool me. I don't even have the CIA to help me with this. When we start attacking countries or people over what we think...that they think; then, we are in bad way. It is all about the heart. Maybe we should try to see some good in other countries. They all can't be as evil as Bush jr. says.

There is nothing more evil than the Doctrine of Preemption. All governments that have had it in the past have fallen and fallen hard. How Bush jr. and his minions figure that they know the hearts of people from other countries is way beyond me. Maybe it is his faith. If that is the case, then we are all doomed. Insight through religion has been the bane of all governments that have used it. Many wars have been fought with god on both sides. But, you see, God doesn't take sides, and he never preempts. Even God acts after the fact, not before it.

Musings 125--Chicken shit democrats.

The democrats can raise all kinds of lip about the Bushies, but they don't have the stomach for a fight. I guess you can say they are chicken shit democrats.

Russ Feingold, who I disagree with on many things, is the only one with the moxie to point at the President of the United States and say that "You broke the law." The rest of the democrats are scared to death that they might lose a vote or two. (See Link)

Bush jr., who has the lowest poll numbers he has ever had at 36%, still strikes fear in the heart of most democrats. I guess that is the result of kicking ass over two elections. However, I have the feeling that the dems could make hay, if they decided to mow it. Feingold is the only one that seems to sense this.

Come on you chicken shit democrats. It is time to go after Bush jr. Even members of the republican party are going after him more than the dems. Grow a backbone, democrats. I think the bird flu has finally arrived in this country and the democrats have it.

Musings 124--Do they do anything right?

Is there any doubt that if there were not a republican controlled congress that the Bushies would have been investigated and censured long ago?

The Bushies have fumbled and messed up everything they have touched. What will Bush jr.'s legacy be? Has his administration and the republican controlled congress done anything that historians will say is great?

The war on terror might be in the plus column, but the verdict is still out on that. Afghanistan was a plus, but, by all indications, it may revert back to the Taliban if certain leaders are toppled or die.

This is an administration that came out of the shoot sponsoring faith-based initiatives. It was pretty much the adoption of government sponsored religion. Thus, with federal monies going to religious help groups--really churches--the full scale corruption began. When religious organizations feel that they can get government monies for free; then, the godliness goes out the window. They start thinking about the money.

The war on terror should be winding down to a manageable level. Instead, Iraq is Viet Nam II. We can't leave and we can't stay. Osama Bin Ladin is still not in chains. Bush jr. did promise that we would get him. Well, we are waiting.

At home, health care costs and prescription drugs are through the roof. We are in danger of losing the middle class that did so well under the Clinton administration. Under Bush jr., the haves seem to have it all--including the good tax cuts.

Bush jr. was going to reform Social Security and Medicare. He did not. He was not open to frank discussion, and, thus, his plans were scuttled by his own party. (With help from the democrats, of course.)

Hurricane Katrina showed that Bush jr. was not exactly on top of things when it came to the security of the homeland. FEMA used to be a great organization. Today it is a shell.

Lastly, port security is not a high thing with this administration. If it was, then we would not have had the mess of the Dubai Port World fiasco. If you know what is going on, you don't get surprised by the feelings of the people on such things.

So the question is: Do these guys do anything right? I can't think of anything. No...wait...I can think of something. They sure can shift the blame elsewhere. They are good at that. The buck never stops in the oval office.

Just to make the point, as I write this Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, D, is making a speech about Homeland Security. She has a sign up in the background that reads: "Dangeroulsy Incompetent." That about sums it up.

Musings 123--Of Olbermann and O'Conner

Bill O'Reilly is sending the Fox Secret Police to beat up on people that mention Keith Olbermann's name on his radio show. You think I' m joking? Nope. (See Link)

Olbermann interviewed a school teacher that O'Reilly deep-sixed on his radio show. Always being one for the dramatic, Keith used backlighting to hide the fellow's face. He is afraid that the Fox Secret Police will beat the snot out of him if they really know what he looks like.

Apparently, Big Head Bill will never again tolerate the name of Olbermann on his show. The back lit guy had the Fox Secret Police guy's message on his answering machine. It was hilarious...if it wasn't so sad.

Big Head Bill has lost it.

Now about Sandra Day O'Conner, she gave a talk yesterday that was rather eye-opening. (See Link) She cautioned her audience that we might be heading toward a dictatorship in this country. She said we all need to take heed. Well, hell...there is a news flash!

She seemed particularly upset over the calling of the impeachment of sitting judges by pundits and lawmakers, alike. Tom DeLay comes immediately to mind. But Ronnie Earls seems to be taking care of him quite nicely down in Texas.

Big Head Bill is also one of the folks that is on the warpath against judges who give one decision that he does not like. He was doing it last night. He loves to paint the picture that he is "looking out for you."

If Sandra Day is so worried about the government turning into a dictatorship; then, she should have allowed television cameras in to record her speech. It all starts with freedom of the press and freedom of speech.

Musings 122--Republicans grow balls...

The Republican Party grew a set of balls when they shoved the Dubia Port's deal back into the president's smirky little face.

Basically, I think they were looking at the polls and decided that they were going to take a butt kicking on this issue during the 2006 elections. I mean the only issue the republicans have really run on in the last six years is national security.

If they would have sided with Bush jr., then they would have had the democrats coming out in force saying that they were soft on security that they had sold our largest ports to the enemy.

Bush jr. has tried to have it both ways. He and Deadeye Dick have been telling us that we are at war with the bad guy Arabs. He then wants us to think that some of the bad guy Arabs are now good because they are capitalists. Forget that two of the hijackers were UAE citizens. Forget that Bin Laden funneled money through the UAE banks. It was now ok. We have Bush jr.'s word for it. (We had his word on WMD's and nuclear weapons programs, too.)

According to the link (See Link) the United Arab Emerites is making noise like they will have reprisals against us for stopping the deal. Well, so much for our allies with rags on their heads.

Maybe there is hope after all.

Musings 121--Death of the Middle Class.Part III.finis

The single greatest thing that created the middle class in the United States was the labor unions. These created an avenue so that working class folks could have a standard of living that was good, and, in many cases, very good.

The United Mine Workers union took many under-educated hard-working people and allowed them to be paid a livable wage. Before the unions, coal miners worked 12-14 hour days for company script. It was not a living, but it was an existence.

The United Auto Workers helped to create a class of people that could benefit from the product they made. The automobile industry was a leader in this new class of people. They worked for good wages. With these wages they could buy modest homes and live the American dream.

The Teamsters were the haulers. They moved the goods from one end of the country to the other.

The Steelworkers Unions made the things that enabled the infrastructure of America to grow. Big business needed building and most of them were made of steel. It was another vocation that grew middle class folks.

The National Teachers Education Association was the teacher's union. These teachers taught the children of the millions of Americans who were doing all of these middle class jobs.

Before long we had a very strong middle class in America. In the mid-70's there were more folks in the middle class that all the other classes combined. America was a middle class country.

Then came the late 1980's and the decade of the 1990's. A thing called out sourcing happened. Big business decided that they were tired of doing business with the unions. They looked around and got the politicians to pass the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It was the beginning of the end for the middle class.

Ronald Reagan, the man who brought down the Berlin Wall, also helped bring down the middle class. When he fired the Air Traffic controllers, he signaled that you could break unions. It started a trend. Unions that would not budge on concessions found that companies just moved elsewhere--sometimes even to another country. Many large corporations found that they could operate in third world countries for pennies on the dollar. Plus, they found that Congress just did not seem to care. It was to busy chasing an intern loving President Bill Clinton.

It only took about twelve years for the U. S. To go from a nation that made things to one that bought everything. The good jobs dried up, and continue to do so to this day. Minimum wage jobs at large corporate Wal-Mart and McDonald's are now the rule rather than the exception.

when, the American work force and the unions that protected them disappeared, there was not much left for the middle class. Hence, it is shrinking and will soon disappear. It will continue to do so, since our elected leaders have long ceased to care.

Alas, the middle class will soon be but a memory. We will be left with the age-old truth of the haves and the have-nots. It was a good ride while it lasted.

Musings 120--Death of the Middle Class. Part II

It seems we were distracted by the ups and downs of President Bill Clinton's zipper. Republicans smelled blood in the water, and, since they had nothing better to do, went after "Slick Willie" with a vengeance. I said it then, and I'll repeat it now, that what Clinton did was not worth all the huff and puff. But, my fellow republicans had not had a democrat to kick around since Jimmy Carter locked himself in the Rose Garden; thus, they went after him with great glee, and they let the rest of the business of running the country go to hob.

The heads of the Multi-Corporations were making out like bandits. We should have known what was going on when the top companies were reporting that their CEO's were taking home salaries in the 10's of millions of dollars a year. We should have realized that no one is worth that kind of money. But, hey, the good times were rolling.

The Feds finally came out of their decade long snooze. They went after the inside traders and junk bond people. Companies with fictitious balance sheets were scrutinized. By digging in, the Feds found fraud and dirty-dealing. They found theft and corruption on a large scale. They cracked down...and then came 9-11-01.

With the fall of the towers and the beginning of the War on Terror, our economy took a downward turn. The good times had ended. Businesses were folding right and left. Some hung on by raiding the pension and retirement funds of their employees. They did so because they could. Legally, the monies that had been set aside by both employees and employers were under the control of the company. Bunches of retirees were shocked at the loss of pensions and benefits. People that had been drawing their retirement pay soon found that they were back on the job market, and Wal-Mart and MacDonald's were the only ones hiring.

Health benefits went through the roof. It was nothing for health insurance to go up 20-30 percent. Welcome to the new millennium.

I retired from teaching school after the 2001-2002 school year. On June 1, 2002, I received my first retirement check. My take home pay was $2002 per month. Six months later my take home was $1675 per month. The decrease was due to the high cost of medical insurance for me and my spouse.

Each year since there has been an increase in health insurance. Each year I receive a cost-of-living raise in retirement benefits of 3 percent. Health care continues to go up by double digits every year. If it continues long enough, I will owe the retirement system money.

During this time home heating oil has risen about 30 percent. Gasoline has gone from $1.60 a gallon to $2.47 per gallon (this morning March 8, 2006). When I retired I was definitely a middle class fellow. Now I am spiraling toward the upper rungs of the lower class. At least it is nice to be the upper rung of something...I think.

Part III tomorrow.

Musings 119--Death of the Middle Class. Part I

I can't put a finger on the exact day I fell out of the middle class. I think it was somewhere around the turn of the century--whether that was 2000 or 2001 is still up for debate.

All I know is that the cost of day to day living has eroded my income each year since. I may make a few dollars more, but the costs that I have no control over just keep on rising. For most of us, living the American dream meant having a steady job and owning a home. If by chance we could save a few bucks for a vacation at Disney World once a year, so much the better.

Middle class folks were the ones that had health insurance and pension plans. Both of these things were usually controlled by the companies that we worked for. In many cases, the wages were not the best, but the benefits enabled us to think that we were doing better than our parents. Our parents had their meager savings and nothing more than what social security paid them at age 65.

When I hit the job market in the late 1960's, minimum wage was $1.25 an hour but you could buy into things called profit sharing accounts. Wealthy companies were starting pension funds for their workers. Many of them matched dollar for dollar the employee's monies. If you worked 30-35 years, you could retire with a pension that was about 80 percent of what you were earning when you were working. Plus, the companies had good health care programs that were locked into reasonable premiums for the rest of your life. All you had to do was reach age 65 and sit back and enjoy the good life.

During the 1990's, companies were flush with investment cash. There was a lot of merging and emerging. Multi-Corporations were the name of the game. Buy one and consolidate and buy another. It was a buyers market. Computers began to really take off, and tech stocks were the hot item. Corporations invested their employees pension funds into these "can't miss" operations. It was the wave of the future. Well, the wave was the start of the wave to the good-by of a way of life. We did not know it, but things were about to take a turn for the worse.

Greed is the thing that makes capitalism work. Now I truly believe in a capitalistic economy. But, I fully realize that the "love of money is the root of all evil." Less than honorable men began to make obscene amounts of money by merging and buying up smaller companies. The Federal Government allowed it, because we believe in the free market system. However, there must always be restraints and oversite. During the 1990's there was very little of either.

Sometime around the year 2000, after a decade of rising stocks and dividends, corporations decided to fudge a bit on the balance sheets to ensure that the good times continued to roll. The Enrons and the World Coms were the ones that we all are familar with. However, there were many others that were a bit over-valued, and they hoped to weather the down turn in earnings and profits by pecking away at those pension funds they had established for their employees. It was a simple idea, really. Just take a bit from the pension fund, since it was doing nothing but laying there and making money, and firm up the business. When the good times began to roll again--as it always does--then the pension funds could be repaid. Well, that was the start down the road to good intentions that truly ended up in Hell.

More tomorrow in Part II.

Musings 118--Big brother has a long reach...

It is amazing the amount of freedoms that we have lost since 9-11. Most of us don't have a clue as to where the long reach of the government arm will turn up next.

We all know that if you use the internet, you are probably being spied upon--in the name of national security, of course.

Most of us realize that any large deposits of cash or withdrawals of cash from a bank--over $10,000--results in you being reported to the feds.

We have all heard about the Homeland Security people wanting to check library records. What we read and what we look at are very important to Big Brother.

However, not many of us know that paying off a large amount of one's credit card debt will get you investigated by Homeland Security. (See Link)

Reporter Bob Kerr of the Providence Journal writes an eerie story about a transplanted Texan by the name of Walter Soehnge. In a nut shell, Walter paid over $6,000 on his JCPenney Platinum MasterCard and got investigated by Homeland Security. Apparently, if you send in a payment that is deemed too much larger than your minimum payment the card company has no choice but to notify the Feds.

Beware, all you folks who wish to pay off your credit card debt and hope to do it in a lump sum when you hit the lottery. You have now been warned.

I wonder what other long reaches Big Brother has that we don't know about. But then, why worry? Bush jr. and his boys are only looking for terrorist...well, how about looking at who is about to manage our largest American seaports. Of course, that's just common sense.

Musings 117--More evidence...

With just a little research one can find lots of reasons not to do business with the United Arab Emerites. (See Link)

Here is a quote from the above link:
"You are well aware that we have infiltrated your security,
censorship, and monetary agencies along with other agencies
that should not be mentioned."

This may or may not be a smoking gun, but it is just one of a whole lot of reasons we should not do business with such folks. Whether or not this letter is real makes no difference. We need to err on the side of caution. Bush jr. loves to say this, so here is his chance.

Come on Bush jr., have you not heard that there is a war going on. This is a no brainer...and that is what scares me.

Musings 116--Thinking like a Terrorist...

The Bush Administration is just more than happy to say that they feel Dubai Ports World, the state owned corporation who wants to manage U.S. ports, is not a security risk. Well, the Bushies are wrong, as usual.

There is ample evidence that the Royal Family of the United Arab Emerites looked the other way when Osama Bin Ladin started his war against America. Keeping in mind that two of the 9-11 hijackers came from that country, it must also be noted that most of the money that financed the terrorist came through bank and financial concerns in the UAE.

Bush jr. says that since 9-11 they have been our allies. Well, maybe...or...maybe not.

You know, if I was a terrorist with Muslim cousins in every middle-eastern country, kind of like Osama, I'd take advantage of having the UAE control American ports. It only takes one fifteenth vice-president in a corporation to look the other way when the bad guys, also Muslims, decide to put a dirty bomb in a storage container and ship it from Dubai to New York City. Plus, if Osama ever cuts a deal with Iran, then they might just ship a nuke to Miami. This is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Bush jr. wants you to think that all these guys in the Royal Family are staunch allies. Well, they played golf with Osama...and, they are Muslims. So call me racist, but were not all the guys that took down the twin towers...ah, Muslims? Now, the UAE may be helping us, but they may be helping us to hurt us. What better way to finally strike a blow for radical Islam than to act like our friends for years just so they can deliver a devastating blow to all our major ports, and mushroom cloud the cities that house them.

I think Osama is a very patience fellow. I think that with a little help he might just be able to really pull off a big thing--maybe six. The Bushies want us to think that these guys are our friends, as they well might be, but it only takes one bad apple to really hurt us. Why should we take the chance to begin with. If the UAE doesn't understand our reluctance to allow them to see where our soft spots are on our eastern ports; then, that is just too bad.

I really haven't seen any Muslims taking to the streets to support any action that the USA has taken. They may say they are our friends, but I doubt it. They want something. I know this because my friends support me, and most of them are very vocal. When they are quiet, I know they are not with me on an issue.

If Bush jr. allows this port deal to go through and five years down the road one or all of our ports are blown to hell; then, it his fault. The same thing applies if its ten years. So, again I ask, why should we take the chance?